The price of the hottest crude oil hangs in the ba

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Crude oil price hangs over OPEC meeting several oil producing countries intend to unlimited production crude oil price hangs over OPEC meeting several oil producing countries intend to unlimited production November 28, 2014 China paint information on Tuesday, when the news that Russia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela did not reach a consensus on limiting production came out, Brent crude oil fell by nearly 2%. In this way, whether the oil exporting countries (OPEC) meeting held on November 27 can reach a consensus on oil production restriction is more concerned by all parties

in September this year, OPEC Secretary General Badri disclosed that it was possible to reduce the output target at the OPEC meeting, reducing the daily output of 2015 from 30million barrels to 29.5 million barrels, reducing the daily output of 500000 barrels. "The figure of 500000 barrels is relatively small. Even if the production limit can be reached, the signal significance is far greater than the actual significance." Zhou Dadi, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said in an interview with the daily economy

however, judging from the signs before the meeting, even the modest figure of 500000 barrels is difficult to achieve. It has been previously disclosed that the four OPEC countries led by Saudi Arabia have reached a consensus that they will not limit production

according to Zhou Dadi's analysis, although the current decline in oil prices has caused losses to oil exporting countries, it has not yet reached the point of having to take action

Russia's appeal to limit production failed

since June this year, the international oil price has been showing a downward trend. In the face of the smooth falling oil price curve, it is obvious that the major oil producing countries are difficult to sit still and raise the piston mountain. A great play of oil diplomacy is being staged, and the pace of this game is more compact on the eve of the OPEC meeting

on the 20th of this month, the Russian Foreign Ministry heard that during the meeting between the Saudi foreign minister and the Russian foreign minister, both expressed their willingness to cooperate on issues related to the energy and oil markets with relatively simple operation. Although the conclusion given by Russia and Saudi Arabia is slightly neutral - the oil price must be market-oriented, it is still a blessing for the long drought crude oil market, and Brent and WTI crude oil both ended up

as a major oil producer in the world, half of Russia's finance comes from the oil and gas industry, and the sharp drop in oil prices has caused heavy losses

Russian energy minister Novak said on the 24th that in order to stabilize oil prices in the international market, Russia is ready to reduce oil production and suggested that the organization of petroleum exporting countries should also consider reducing oil production

it is not easy for Russia to take the stance of limiting production. Linboqiang (microblog), director of China energy economy research center of Xiamen University, told daily economy that due to the severe cold climate, some oil wells in Russia will freeze once production is limited, causing mechanical damage

nevertheless, Russia still sent representatives to the headquarters of OPEC in Vienna to try to reach an agreement with other major oil producing countries before the OPEC meeting on the 27th

the market expectation failed again. As a result of shuttle diplomacy between Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia and Mexico, no agreement was reached on limiting production

"no country is willing to limit production." Linboqiang said that they all hope that other countries can abide by the regulations and reduce production, and then produce more by themselves, so that other countries can be "wronged"

opec members have different opinions

as the traditional dominator of the world oil market, every move of the organization of petroleum exporting countries affects the international oil price curve. However, OPEC, which has 12 notches that should be processed by impact specimen notching broaching machine, is not a monolithic member. In the face of the sharp decline in oil prices in recent months, the small force sensors in the market generally use S-type sensors, and the organization has already started a "price war"

as the "boss" of OPEC, Saudi Arabia has said in recent weeks that it can accept the current oil price. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and other countries have lowered oil prices in recent months - for OPEC members, the decline in oil prices has become the key to maintaining or increasing their global market share

according to the analysis of analysts from Huafu Jialuo securities, some OPEC internal oil producing countries have high production costs due to political and technical reasons, so they hope to ensure the crude oil export earnings through production restriction. Saudi Arabia and other countries with a cost of $40 to $50 want to ensure that their market share is not eroded by other non OPEC exporters or the growing US shale gas exporters

Saudi oil minister onami said on Wednesday that OPEC's Gulf oil producing countries would not propose to limit production on Thursday, and the falling oil price would stabilize itself. According to the analysis of Huafu Jialuo, Saudi Arabia, as an important member of OPEC, may suppress the voices of other members and encourage most members to follow the current output quantity

this analysis has been confirmed by the market. According to Reuters, the representative of an oil producing country in the Gulf region to OPEC said that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have reached an agreement on unlimited production. Iran's oil minister told the media before talks with Venezuelan representatives on Wednesday that Iran would not cut production and would not ask Saudi Arabia to do so

judging from this, it is more likely that the Member States will strictly abide by the production ceiling of 30million barrels per day rather than reduce the production target

limiting production may not save the market.

in fact, even if OPEC members reach an agreement on limiting production, oil prices may not stop falling

some analysts said that OPEC must reduce production by 1.5 million barrels a day to support oil prices and avoid the aggravation of oversupply in the first half of 2015. However, OPEC's greatest sincerity was to reduce production by 500000 barrels a day. Zhou Dadi believed that 500000 barrels was just a signal that OPEC would not sit idly by if oil prices continued to fall

it is worth noting that the output quota target of OPEC is only a voluntary and non mandatory target. Therefore, if most members do not agree to limit production, the oral agreement may not be achieved

according to Zhou Dadi, there are no punitive measures for OPEC quotas, and there is indeed a gap between quotas and output. However, from past experience, quotas still have a binding effect on OPEC members and other major oil exporting countries. "OPEC has decided to limit production. At least these countries will not increase production significantly. There is a balance between them." He said

however, the power of this role is weakening with the rise of shale oil in the United States. The US energy information administration announced in September that the US exported 401000 barrels of crude oil per day on average in July this year, the highest in 57 years

although this figure is pitifully small compared with the global daily consumption, the increase in the production of shale gas and oil in the United States has significantly reduced its oil imports: in 2013, the import of crude oil in the United States fell to 2.8 billion barrels, a decrease of nearly 24% compared with the peak in 2005; The daily output of crude oil in the United States is about 9million barrels, which increases the proportion of its own production and sales from 70% in 2005 to 86% now

according to Zhou Dadi's analysis, for a country like the United States, which is both an oil producer and an importer, the impact of OPEC production restriction is limited

according to a report released by the International Energy Agency last year, the United States will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest energy producer in 2015

Jeff, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Kerry once said, "although we still believe that OPEC is still a production regulator, it is no longer a leading actor." He said that US shale oil production must be reduced in order to balance the global oil market

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