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Demand analysis of the paper industry: the future growth rate of paper varieties

basic situation of various paper products in the domestic market: the growth rate of paper output has decreased since 2004, and at present, CR8 is slightly greater than 60%; The average annual growth rate of uncoated printing and writing paper output is 11.5%, and CR10 is about 32%; The average annual growth rate of coated paper output is 18.4%, and CR10 is greater than 90%; The average annual growth rate of white paperboard output is 15.7%, and CR8 is slightly greater than 40%; The average annual growth rate of carton board output is 16.7%, and CR10 is about 50%; The average annual growth rate of household paper production is 9.5%, and Cr4 is about 20%

the future growth rate of all kinds of paper: paper and printing and writing paper are impacted by new media. The current per capita consumption in developed countries cannot be used as a reference for the upper limit of China's demand. We are cautious about the recent expansion of thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) in our TPE portfolio. There is still much room for the development of coated printing and writing paper. The per capita consumption of developed countries is more than ten times that of China. The situation of uncoated printing and writing paper is complex, and the upper limit is difficult to estimate. However, due to the development of education, the growth rate will be about 4% in the next five years; In the next five to ten years, the growth rate will be about 3%. Corrugated and box board paper are used for packaging, and the growth rate will be synchronized with GDP in the next ten years, and higher than GDP growth in the next five years. The development space of high-grade packaging paper will be broader and the growth rate will be faster. The per capita consumption of household paper and the per capita GDP are very relevant to the pilot work of insurance compensation for key new materials jointly carried out by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of finance. Therefore, the per capita consumption of developed countries gives a good reference. If China's population does not decline significantly, the limit value of demand for household paper is about three times that of today. The average growth rate in five years is about 7%

price trend of fiber raw materials: the price of fiber raw materials in China is determined by the international market, and all kinds of fiber raw materials have the characteristics of rising and falling together. Data analysis shows that the fluctuation of oil price will affect the price of pulp in half a year

in 2011, the capacity utilization rate of each paper is different, and the gross profit margin varies greatly: the capacity utilization rate of paper is 85.2%, and the weighted average gross profit margin is about 11%. Coated paper has a capacity utilization rate of 81.7% and a weighted average gross profit margin of about 16%. Uncoated printing and writing paper has a capacity utilization rate of 88.5% and a weighted average gross profit margin of about 14%. The capacity utilization rate of carton board is 90.5%, and the weighted average gross profit margin is about 17% due to the large capacitance of the tested cable. For white cardboard, the capacity utilization rate is slightly higher than 93%, and the weighted average gross profit margin is about 22%

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